Aichi Prefecture (愛知県) — Earthquake Risk & History
Chubu region · Based on HERP official data
Aichi is in the direct impact zone of the Nankai Trough earthquake. The low-lying Ise Bay coastal areas face high tsunami inundation risk, and Nagoya's urban infrastructure would suffer severe damage. The 70–80% probability Nankai Trough event remains the dominant threat.
Fault Lines & Seismic Characteristics
Active Faults & Trenches
- Nankai Trough
- Nobi Fault System
- Ise Bay Fault
- Enshu-nada Fault
Seismic Characteristics
The Nobi Fault Zone, which caused the 1891 M8.0 earthquake, extends from western Aichi into Gifu. Ise Bay's enclosed geometry amplifies tsunami waves from the Nankai Trough — some low-lying coastal areas face inundation depths of up to 5 m. Multiple active fault lines have been identified beneath Nagoya City itself.
Earthquake History
- M6.8
1945
Mikawa earthquake — direct beneath western Aichi, Intensity 6; 2,306 dead (official records; wartime underreporting means actual toll was likely higher)
- M7.9
1944
Tonankai earthquake — factory collapses in Nagoya, coastal tsunami; 1,200+ dead
- M8.0
1891
Nobi Earthquake — full rupture of Nobi Fault Zone; widespread damage across Aichi and Gifu; 7,273 dead
※ Showing M6.5+ or Intensity 5+ events. Source: JMA database, Cabinet Office. Wartime (1944–1945) casualty statistics may undercount actual losses due to censorship.
Future Probability — HERP Official Assessment
30-Year Probability (Official Figure)
Earthquake Research Committee 2023 assessment. Combined impacts expected: Ise Bay coastal inundation, Nagoya building damage, and transportation network disruption.
Traveler Safety Information
Finding Evacuation Shelters
- ✅ Search "避難所" (hinanjo) on Google Maps to find the nearest shelter from your current location
- ✅ Install NHK World or Safety tips (Japan Tourism Agency app) — both send English earthquake alerts
- ✅ Aichi Prefecture official disaster prevention page (Japanese) — includes shelter maps
Basic Action Rules
- ✅ At check-in, locate emergency exits and escape routes
- ✅ On strong shaking: protect your head, open a door to secure an exit, do not use elevators
- ✅ Near coasts or rivers: move to high ground immediately — do not wait for a tsunami warning
- ✅ Emergency numbers: Police 110 · Ambulance/Fire 119
- ✅ Contact your embassy in Tokyo for emergency consular assistance
Research & Official Sources AI summary
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Projected damage to Nagoya and Aichi in a Nankai Trough earthquake
Aichi faces combined impacts from a Nankai Trough earthquake: Ise Bay coastal inundation, Nagoya building damage, and network failures. Some Ise Bay lowland areas face simulated tsunami inundation depths of up to 5 m.
Source: 아이치현 방재국 (2023) -
Earthquake and tsunami preparedness for Nagoya and Ise Bay visitors
Nagoya City faces Intensity 6–7 in a direct earthquake. Watch for falling debris near Nagoya Castle and Atsuta Shrine. If strong shaking is felt near Ise Bay, move inland immediately. The 1959 Isewan Typhoon (Vera) killed over 5,000 people through storm surge — the same coastal geography would be similarly affected by earthquake tsunami.
Source: 아이치현 방재국·나고야시 (2023)
Related Guides
Seismic characteristics and research summaries on this page are AI-generated from publicly available data by JMA, Cabinet Office, and HERP. Historical earthquake data (year, magnitude, damage) is based on official records, but key figures should always be cross-checked with the latest official sources. This page does not predict future earthquakes.