Hokkaido (北海道) — Earthquake Risk & History
Hokkaido region · Based on HERP official data
Hokkaido sits close to two major subduction zones — the Kuril Trench and the Japan Trench. The 2018 Eastern Iburi earthquake (M6.7) triggered a complete island-wide blackout, the first in Japan's history. Authorities warn that a M8–9 megaquake off eastern Hokkaido remains a credible long-term threat.
Fault Lines & Seismic Characteristics
Active Faults & Trenches
- Kuril Trench
- Japan Trench
- Iburi Fault Zone
Seismic Characteristics
The Kuril Trench runs along Hokkaido's Pacific coast, where the Pacific Plate subducts beneath the North American Plate. The Eastern Iburi fault zone, which caused the 2018 quake, cuts through south-central Hokkaido — active faults also run beneath Sapporo's urban area. If a M9-class event ruptures the eastern Pacific coast, tsunami heights of 20 m or more are projected for low-lying coastal areas.
Earthquake History
- M6.7
2018
Eastern Iburi earthquake — Intensity 7, island-wide blackout across Hokkaido, 41 dead, widespread landslides
- M8.0
2003
Tokachi-oki earthquake — tsunami warning for eastern Hokkaido coast, widespread infrastructure damage
- M7.8
1993
Hokkaido Nansei-oki earthquake — tsunami struck Okushiri Island, 230 dead or missing
- M8.2
1952
Tokachi-oki earthquake — major damage across eastern Hokkaido, tsunami reached national coastline
※ Showing M7.5+ or Intensity 6+ events. Source: JMA earthquake database.
Future Probability — HERP Official Assessment
30-Year Probability (Official Figure)
Special survey by the Earthquake Research Committee (2017, updated 2023). A tsunami reaching 20 m+ is projected for Hokkaido's Pacific coast. Probability figures are updated periodically — check the ERC official site for the latest.
Traveler Safety Information
Finding Evacuation Shelters
- ✅ Search "避難所" (hinanjo) on Google Maps to find the nearest shelter from your current location
- ✅ Install NHK World or Safety tips (Japan Tourism Agency app) — both send English earthquake alerts
- ✅ Hokkaido official disaster prevention page (Japanese) — includes shelter maps
Basic Action Rules
- ✅ At check-in, locate emergency exits and escape routes
- ✅ On strong shaking: protect your head, open a door to secure an exit, do not use elevators
- ✅ Near coasts or rivers: move to high ground immediately — do not wait for a tsunami warning
- ✅ Emergency numbers: Police 110 · Ambulance/Fire 119
- ✅ Contact your embassy in Tokyo for emergency consular assistance
Research & Official Sources AI summary
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Megaquake risk off eastern Hokkaido
The Earthquake Research Committee puts the 30-year probability of an M9-class Kuril Trench event at 7–40%. Tsunami risk is high; confirm evacuation routes before visiting low-lying coastal areas.
Source: 일본 지진조사위원회 (2023) -
Soft ground and seismic amplification in Sapporo
Parts of Sapporo are built on alluvial deposits that amplify ground motion. During the 2018 quake, large-scale liquefaction was reported in Kiyota Ward and surrounding areas.
Source: 홋카이도 대학 지진화산연구관측센터 (2020)
Related Guides
Seismic characteristics and research summaries on this page are AI-generated from publicly available data by JMA, Cabinet Office, and HERP. Historical earthquake data (year, magnitude, damage) is based on official records, but key figures should always be cross-checked with the latest official sources. This page does not predict future earthquakes.