Tokyo Metropolis (東京都) — Earthquake Risk & History
Kanto region · Based on HERP official data
Tokyo is directly in the zone of a Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake (M7 class, 70% probability in 30 years). The densely packed wooden housing districts present a major fire propagation risk. Underground infrastructure — subways, utility networks — is another critical vulnerability.
Fault Lines & Seismic Characteristics
Active Faults & Trenches
- Northern Tokyo Bay Fault
- Edogawa Fault
- Standing Water Fault
- Saitama Fault System
Seismic Characteristics
The Philippine Sea Plate subducts beneath Tokyo at roughly 70 km depth. Multiple active faults run beneath the urban area — Tokyo Bay North Fault, Edogawa Fault, and others. Densely packed wooden housing districts in Adachi, Arakawa, and Sumida wards face extreme fire propagation risk after a major earthquake. The 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake (M7.9), which originated on the Sagami Trough, killed over 105,000 people, predominantly in fires.
Earthquake History
- M9.0
2011
Great East Japan Earthquake — Intensity 5+ in Tokyo; 5.15 million people unable to return home; all rail suspended
📖 Wikipedia - M7.9
1923
Great Kanto Earthquake — Tokyo and Yokohama devastated; 105,000+ dead or missing including fire deaths
📖 Wikipedia - M8.2
1703
Genroku Kanto earthquake — widespread impact on Edo (Tokyo); tsunami along the entire Kanto coast
※ Showing M7+ or Intensity 5+ events. Source: JMA database, Cabinet Office.
Future Probability — HERP Official Assessment
30-Year Probability (Official Figure)
Cabinet Office / Earthquake Research Committee assessment published 2013, updated periodically. Tokyo Metropolitan Government's 2022 revised estimate projects ~6,000 deaths in a worst-case scenario (down from 23,000 due to building retrofitting progress).
Traveler Safety Information
Finding Evacuation Shelters
- ✅ Search "避難所" (hinanjo) on Google Maps to find the nearest shelter from your current location
- ✅ Install NHK World or Safety tips (Japan Tourism Agency app) — both send English earthquake alerts
- ✅ Tokyo Metropolis official disaster prevention page (Japanese) — includes shelter maps
Basic Action Rules
- ✅ At check-in, locate emergency exits and escape routes
- ✅ On strong shaking: protect your head, open a door to secure an exit, do not use elevators
- ✅ Near coasts or rivers: move to high ground immediately — do not wait for a tsunami warning
- ✅ Emergency numbers: Police 110 · Ambulance/Fire 119
- ✅ Contact your embassy in Tokyo for emergency consular assistance
Research & Official Sources AI summary
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Latest damage projections for a Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake (revised 2022)
Tokyo Metropolitan Government revised its 2022 damage projections: ~6,000 deaths in the worst-case scenario, ~190,000 buildings totally destroyed or burned, ~3.2 million evacuees.
Source: 도쿄도 방재도시만들기 추진계획 (2022) -
Fire risk in Tokyo's wooden housing districts
Districts like Adachi, Arakawa, and Sumida contain dense wooden housing where post-earthquake fires could spread on a large scale. Seismic retrofitting and fire-resistance improvement programs are ongoing, but significant challenges remain.
Source: 도쿄도 방재도시만들기 추진계획 (2023)
Related Guides
Seismic characteristics and research summaries on this page are AI-generated from publicly available data by JMA, Cabinet Office, and HERP. Historical earthquake data (year, magnitude, damage) is based on official records, but key figures should always be cross-checked with the latest official sources. This page does not predict future earthquakes.