Tokushima Prefecture (徳島県) — Earthquake Risk & History
Shikoku region · Based on HERP official data
Tokushima is on Shikoku's east coast directly facing the Nankai Trough. A significant portion of the prefecture's population lives within the projected tsunami inundation zone. The Median Tectonic Line — Japan's longest fault system — runs through the prefecture.
Fault Lines & Seismic Characteristics
Active Faults & Trenches
- Nankai Trough
- Median Tectonic Line
Seismic Characteristics
Tokushima Prefecture faces the Nankai Trough directly from Shikoku's eastern coast. The Median Tectonic Line (Chuo Kozo-sen) — Japan's longest fault system — runs east–west through the prefecture. Some coastal areas face tsunami arrival within 5–10 minutes, and a large percentage of the prefecture's population lives within the projected inundation zone.
Earthquake History
- M8.0
1946
Nankai earthquake — tsunami hit Tokushima coast; fishing communities damaged
- M8.4
1854
Ansei Nankai earthquake — tsunami killed thousands across Tokushima
※ Showing M7+ or historically major tsunami events. Source: JMA database.
Future Probability — HERP Official Assessment
30-Year Probability (Official Figure)
Earthquake Research Committee 2023 assessment. Tokushima holds regular tsunami evacuation drills. Confirm evacuation routes and assembly points before any coastal visit.
Traveler Safety Information
Finding Evacuation Shelters
- ✅ Search "避難所" (hinanjo) on Google Maps to find the nearest shelter from your current location
- ✅ Install NHK World or Safety tips (Japan Tourism Agency app) — both send English earthquake alerts
- ✅ Tokushima Prefecture official disaster prevention page (Japanese) — includes shelter maps
Basic Action Rules
- ✅ At check-in, locate emergency exits and escape routes
- ✅ On strong shaking: protect your head, open a door to secure an exit, do not use elevators
- ✅ Near coasts or rivers: move to high ground immediately — do not wait for a tsunami warning
- ✅ Emergency numbers: Police 110 · Ambulance/Fire 119
- ✅ Contact your embassy in Tokyo for emergency consular assistance
Research & Official Sources AI summary
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Tokushima Prefecture tsunami inundation projection and evacuation planning
Tokushima Prefecture simulations project over 10,000 deaths from a Nankai Trough tsunami in the worst-case scenario. The prefecture runs "Nigesugoroku" and other community-based disaster education programs.
Source: 도쿠시마현 방재인식추진과 (2023) -
Tsunami evacuation guidance for Awa Odori and Naruto Whirlpool visitors
The Awa Odori festival (August) and Naruto Whirlpool are popular tourist draws. The Naruto Strait is close to the Nankai Trough — tsunami can arrive quickly after an earthquake. If on a boat, move to land immediately and go to high ground. During Awa Odori events, tsunami evacuation routes are marked at all festival venues.
Source: 도쿠시마현 방재과·나루토시 (2023)
Related Guides
Seismic characteristics and research summaries on this page are AI-generated from publicly available data by JMA, Cabinet Office, and HERP. Historical earthquake data (year, magnitude, damage) is based on official records, but key figures should always be cross-checked with the latest official sources. This page does not predict future earthquakes.